Major gatherings are making a comeback. Following an 18-month hiatus, concerts, festivals, sports, and other significant events are anticipated to return to their previous pre-pandemic grandeur. When various cities and states implemented stay-at-home orders in March of the previous year, Live For Live Music shifted its focus from promoting shows to tracking cancellations. However, with increasing vaccination rates and eased pandemic restrictions by governments, the music marketing and production company’s website is returning to its usual operations.

A recent blog post from Live For Live Music stated, “For the first time in memory, today’s update does not include any cancellations or postponements.”

The resurgence of the event ecosystem is happening faster than initially projected. Professionals in the events industry foresee the number of events and event attendance reaching and potentially exceeding the levels of pre-pandemic times in 2019. Nonetheless, this recovery depends on several factors, such as the effectiveness of the vaccine program, the nature of the events, and their geographical locations.

Leaders in the event industry consistently emphasized the pent-up demand to express their confidence that events would thrive in a post-pandemic era. After enduring a year and a half of staying at home, many individuals are eagerly looking forward to participating in festivals, concerts, sporting events, and other large group activities they have missed. So far, it appears that they are making concerted efforts to compensate for lost time.

Current event data indicates that June is poised to become the first month in the United States, since prior to the onset of the pandemic, where events will generate revenue exceeding one billion dollars. This insight stems from recent information provided by PredictHQ, a demand forecasting company. The overall economic impact, estimated by calculating spending on travel, food, and accommodations for the largest 2,500 events in June—encompassing sports, concerts, conferences, and expos—is projected to reach $1.6 billion. This figure surpasses the event-related spending seen in the past year by a significant margin.

During the past year, these event categories were notably scarce due to health-related restrictions that limited group activities. The numbers for June represent a substantial improvement, and it is expected that they will continue to rise as cities and states further ease restrictions regarding venue capacity and masking requirements. Additionally, more events are anticipated to be added to calendars.

PredictHQ CEO and co-founder Campbell Brown remarked on the current situation, stating that there is available capital, a significant pent-up demand, and a growing number of events being organized—a confluence he described as the “perfect storm of demand.”

The leading ticket vendors across the country are enthusiastic about the shift as well.

Akshay Khanna, the general manager of the ticket exchange platform StubHub, conveyed, “The demand is rebounding in an unexpectedly robust manner compared to what we envisioned just 60 days ago.” He attributes this surge in demand to people’s confidence in the vaccine program and the substantial increase in vaccinations since February.

StubHub foresees that event numbers and ticket sales in the latter half of the year will match or potentially surpass those of 2019, given this rush in demand and the growing number of events being announced. “Considering the pent-up demand and human behavior, I would find it surprising if this were not the case, provided the vaccine rollout continues smoothly and case numbers keep decreasing,” remarked Khanna.

Live Nation, the event organization that owns Ticketmaster, recently disclosed that major tour dates booked for the next year have seen a double-digit increase compared to the record year of 2019. However, this year, events have not yet reached their pre-pandemic levels in terms of the number of events or overall attendance, according to PredictHQ.

By late May, it is projected that attendance at festivals scheduled for the latter part of the year will reach 87% of the levels observed in 2019, according to PredictHQ. In contrast, concerts and conferences are currently at 53% of their 2019 attendance for events listed as of May each year. Sporting events are slightly higher at 58% and are on the rise.

PredictHQ asserts that as more events are added due to the success of ongoing events, overall attendance numbers will continue to rise. The company anticipates that attendance levels for this year will surpass those of 2019.

The form of recovery that will materialize depends on several factors.

The events that are showing the most promise are, naturally, those held outdoors. Outdoor events, such as music festivals, present a lower risk of Covid-19 infection and are thus recovering at a faster pace.

Several popular multi-day music festivals that draw tens of thousands of attendees have returned to this year’s calendar. Bonnaroo, Austin City Limits, Electric Daisy, Astro World, and Rolling Loud all sold out in record time, as reported by Ticketmaster. Garth Brooks recently achieved the fastest-selling stadium show ever, with 50,000 seats at Utah’s outdoor Rice-Eccles Stadium selling out in less than 30 minutes.

“Strong demand is confirming that fans are eager to return to the experiences they cherish — it seems like every week we see another event breaking a record,” mentioned Ticketmaster president Mark Yovich in an email to Recode. “For some of these record-breaking sales, we have millions of fans vying for just a few hundred thousand tickets.”

Moreover, these record-breaking events are not limited to outdoor venues. In May, the world title fight between Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Billy Joe Saunders set a record for attendance at an indoor boxing event in the US, with over 70,000 fans present at AT&T Stadium in Texas. This event was one of many surpassing pre-pandemic attendance levels by double digits and sometimes more, according to StubHub.

According to Akshay Khanna from StubHub, concerts are expected to witness a significant surge in demand. This surge is likely due to people being able to enjoy sports by watching them on TV, even if they can’t physically attend. Khanna mentioned, “I haven’t had the chance to watch a concert, and there aren’t many alternatives. I can listen to Spotify, but it doesn’t compare to experiencing a live performance by someone like Billie Eilish.” He also pointed out that comedy shows and theater lack a satisfying alternative to in-person events.

Indeed, high-profile artists like Billie Eilish and rapper Bad Bunny have seen exceptional sales on StubHub over the last few months.

Furthermore, the introduction of new stadiums for teams like the Las Vegas Raiders and the LA Chargers is contributing to the growing desire to attend games at these venues.

Smaller community events are making a return to in-person formats as well. Throughout the pandemic, Eventbrite, a platform for event management and ticketing, witnessed a surge in virtual events, particularly focused on areas like health and wellness, self-care, and career development, according to Tamara Mendelsohn, the company’s chief marketing officer. Presently, popular searches on the platform include food trucks, car shows, live music, and comedy events.

Mendelsohn noted, “In the data, we observe this resurgence of people wanting to go out, celebrate, and engage in the enjoyable activities they couldn’t experience in person last year.”

The success of various events is also influenced by the policies of individual states. Attendance at festivals and expos in Nevada and Texas has already surpassed their 2019 levels, as reported by PredictHQ. In Texas, these figures have more than doubled, driven by pent-up demand and the hosting of events from other states. On the other hand, PredictHQ’s data indicates that California, with stricter policies, ranks among the bottom 10 states in terms of the return of event attendance, with approximately half its 2019 attendance rate.

In states such as Nevada and Texas, where mandates were lifted about a month and a half ago, there has been a notable acceleration in event rebooking rates, as noted by Brown. He stated, “We anticipate that once California lifts its mandate on June 15th, there will be a surge in event bookings for the latter part of the year.”

For certain individuals, the safety precautions implemented at events will be a deciding factor. Many venues across the country now require a vaccine passport or proof of a negative Covid-19 test for attendance. New York’s Excelsior Pass Wallet recently became the most downloaded health and fitness app in the US, according to app measurement firm App Annie. Precautions such as social distancing, mask-wearing, and limiting event capacities are likely to become less prevalent as local and state governments phase out their mandates.

It’s conceivable that events may soon resemble their pre-pandemic state. Brown from PredictHQ remarked, “I believe we’ll see a shift back to a state very similar to pre-pandemic times, but with improved safety measures. However, if individuals choose to wear a mask to an event, it’s unlikely they’ll face social isolation because of that choice.”